Possible Tories who may ‘Phil’ like becoming UKIPers

This week’s revelation by Tim Montgomerie that there are some Tory MPs who are strongly considering joining UKIP has not come as a surprise, but has started much speculation.

The funny thing was that talking to a few Tory Researcher I know, or “insiders” as others on the blogosphere like to refer to them these days, they have their own suspicions and are not completely opposed to the idea; one said:

Well its better than the Lib Dems, and most of us agree more with their policies than our own at the moment…

It’s quite a laid back approach and something I find quite strange. As the alternative would be a Labour MP like John McDonnell going over to the Greens or Respect, and to say I would be livid would be an understatement. Personally, I find the very idea of even letting someone like Galloway back into our Party revolting.

Anyhow, the Guido Fawkes blog has done a rather helpful list of possible defectors. However, there are a couple of exceptional names missing: Philip Hollobone MP and Philip Davies MP.

Both MPs are on the backbench and very critical of the frontbench Cameroons, not careerists and hold pretty much the same views as Ukip on a plethora of issues.

In addition, they both had slim majorities after the 2005 election similar to the size of the UKIP support locally. And although they now both have massively increased their majorities at the 2010 election, from the low hundreds to over 9,000 each, they won’t be ruling out how tight their majorities once were in 2015.

Furthermore, at the last election both MPs enjoyed the support of UKIP who not only didn’t run candidates against them but also came out and officially campaigned for them.

And what’s more, MPs like Davies welcomed it!

Given that these two seats are potentially marginal (if you add David Nuttall MP, similar ilk with an current marginal seat), what would stop them jumping ship to UKIP and cutting a deal with the Tories who would not want to risk losing possibly marginal seats?

And why could a deal not be struck by smart Tory strategist seeking a Tory majority ahead of the next election to cover their right flank?

Everyone is a winner, the Tories don’t have to worry about Labour gaining a possible marginal, and Ukip get to grow in size. Those on the ideological political right would see another party to buttress the core beliefs. UKip for some rightwing Tory activists is what the Green party is for some of the more loopy lefty Labour activists.

The precedent is already set, and the deal struck could be similar to the one they did in Northern Ireland with the Ulster Unionist Party before the last election.

The Ukip MPs could become the English (and Scottish) version to Ulster Conservative and Unionist candidates in Northern Ireland. In affect they could be the Conservative and UKip candidates, which is pretty much what UKip are doing now anyway.

The defecting MPs could create a situation that forces the hand of CCHQ to recognize their fellow ideological brothers. And the ideal MPs to do it would be those who are already breaking the Tory whip and are de-facto Ukipers anyway…

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